Nigeria

Nigeria remains fully committed to reducing GHG emissions as per its NDC 3.0, with more enhanced targets consistent with the national goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2060. It now commits to reducing its unconditional GHG emissions by 29% in 2030 below business-as-usual emissions and increases its conditional target to 32% below business-as-usual emissions in 2035. This translates to a Sectoral target of: Energy (-31.2 MtCO₂e), Fuel Combustion (-103.4 MtCO₂e), IPPU (-14.0 MtCO₂e), Agriculture (-2.1 MtCO₂e), LULUCF (-347.9 MtCO₂e) and Waste (-12.5 MtCO₂e).

These targets are underpinned by expanded sectoral coverage, strengthened climate governance, and robust implementation frameworks that ensure both environmental integrity and socioeconomic advancement. The NDC 3.0 maintains the 2018 baseline as reference year to better reflect progress and national context.

A national carbon pricing/market framework that enables Article 6 outcomes has been developed and launched in November 2025. Also, the development of an ITMO registry is underway, with plans to explore the possibility of implementing a mechanism for carbon emission trading.

As part of fully participating in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, Nigeria intends to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6. It is currently awaiting the transition from the Kyoto Protocol framework to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) for its CDM projects relating to improved cookstoves under the Programme of Action. Once this transition is complete, and Nigeria operationalizes Article 6 of the PA, any emission traded will be subtracted from the nationally achieved outcomes reflected in its NDC.

The NDC contains the following mitigation actions:

Energy

• 48% of population using LPG and 13% using improved cookstoves by 2030
• Elimination of kerosene lighting by 2030
• Charcoal production reduced by 56%
• Bus Rapid Transport will account for 22% of passenger-km travelling by bus
• 50% of locomotives using CNG by 2035
• All vehicles meet EURO IV emission limits by 2030
• Achieve 52% of on-grid and off-grid generation capacity from renewable energy sources through installed capacities of 10,400 MW Hydro, 5,700 MW Solar, 17,000 MW Gas, 2,500 MW DSM
• 100% of diesel and single cycle steam turbines replaces with combined cycle
• Elimination of diesel and gasoline generation for electricity generation by 2030
• Zero gas flaring by 2030
• 60% reduction in fugitive methane emissions by 2035
• 100% of households use efficient lighting with elimination of incandescent bulbs
• Reduction in use of generators by 30%
• Charcoal production reduced by 56%

LULUCF

• Lower deforestation rate by 60%
• Establish 130,000 ha of forests reserves, conserve 13,000 ha of mangroves, and restore and protect 162,000 ha of degraded forests
• Promote and establish 75,000 ha of community forest

Waste

• Recover and channel 50% of organic waste for composting
• Reduce open burning of waste by 40%
• Develop centralised wastewater system to cover 1% of urban population

Agriculture

• Promote composting of crop residues and agricultural waste
• Systems Rice Intensification is adopted on 40% in 40% of irrigated rice production.
• Promote the adoption of ranching to reach 15% of the cattle population by 2035

IPPU

• Introduce low-global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants
• Substitute 10% clinker in 33% of cement produced with fly ash
• Promote recovery of HFCs from retiring equipment

The NDC 3.0 has increased the sectors covered from 5 to 6. These are Energy (including fugitive emissions and solid fuel transformation), Fuel combustion, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and Waste.

The estimated investment required over the implementation period 2026-2035 is USD 337 billion. Out of this, USD 195 billion (57.8%) will be required for mitigation, USD 141.5 billion (42.1%) will support adaptation and the remaining will be used to cover the cost of Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) elements for addressing mitigation and adaptation in an all-inclusive manner. In totality, Nigeria will mobilize USD 67 billion to meet its unconditional NDC needs and the remaining USD 270 billion from international funding.